Oscar Night

Rooting for Brokeback Mountain all the way!

My sentimental picks would be all eight awards for Brokeback, but I don't think that is going to happen. So here are the ones I think will win. (I don't like "should wins" as it diminishes the signficance of the actual win.)

Best Supporting Actress:
I don't think this one is going to Rachel Weisz. I am picking Michelle Williams because I am hoping for a Brokeback sweep and this early in the evening award would indicate that one is coming. I also think that the Academy might like rewarding a local girl from TV who has come this far so quickly. So that's my hope.

Best Supporting Actor:
This will go to Clooney. I am thrilled that Jake Gyllenhaal won the BAFTA for this role. It makes me relax about this award. He is the sentimental favorite, though, on all the blogs and Oscar Watch sites. His performance is often overlooked because Heath's was so huge. But for fans of the film, Jake has nearly attained "Buddha-like" status. And he's so hot.

Best Cinematography:
Plenty of people think that "Memoirs of a Geisha" will take this one. I don't buy it. This one is Brokeback's.

Best Score:
I love the Brokeback score. It is just what a score should be - a subtle yet real character in the film that both describes and advances the story. Gorgeous, haunting, moving. Gustavo Santaolla is competing against perennial favorite: John Williams. Williams has won this award seven times. I don't think he's got it this time.

Best Adapted Screenplay:
Brokeback has this one too. No contest. Look for Larry McMurty to say witty things. Look for Annie Proulx (author of the short story) to come on stage with Larry and Diana Ossana.

Best Actor:
Philip Seymour Hoffman will win this one. A loss would be a crime after winning every other BA award he's been up for. It's ashame that Heath Ledger hasn't won a single major award (though he has won many of the critic's awards, most notably the New York Film Critic's Award for Best Actor). His performance is just stunning, a "take your breath away" performance. Look for him to win in about three or four years when he matures and the Academy owes him one.

Best Director:
Ang Lee has this one in the bag. This is the only sure thing of the night. He is deserving and AMPAS will agree.

Best Picture:
I am going with Brokeback Mountain despite all the last minute prophets of doom who say "Crash" will crash Brokeback's party. I don't think so. If "Crash" wins, there will be some big time "splainin'" to do as BBM has won every other major Best Picture award. (SAG ensemble doesn't count since that is about ensemble acting and "Crash" is the epitome of ensemble acting - BBM is not.)

So those are the ones I care about.

And now, nail biting time.